MSNBC "Super Tuesday" - Transcript

Interview

MS. MITCHELL: We begin our Super Tuesday coverage right here with an eye to the political calendar. We are only 23 days away from the Iowa caucuses. New Hampshire primary, of course, follows just five days later.

Those critical first contests can build momentum and, of course, bring in cash for the winners.

So let's bring in a man who knows the tricky political landscape of Iowa firsthand, the senior senator from the Hawkeye State, Republican Charles Grassley.

Welcome, senator. You know the landscape; it is a frozen landscape today, so you're fortunate to be in Washington, not back home. Well, you have predicted that Mitt Romney would win Iowa; you're not backing anyone. Why do you think that Romney will still win despite the surge in polls for Mike Huckabee?

SEN. GRASSLEY: Well, I suppose if that surge continued for the next 23 days, I'd have to change my judgment, but at the time I made that statement maybe a week or two weeks ago and Huckabee was coming up at that particular time, I looked at it this way and I still look at it this way and that is that turnout is very, very important, particularly that this is an early turnout and it comes at holiday time.

Governor Romney has many more people in his organization and many more paid people than what Huckabee has, so I figure he's going to be able to turn people out, maybe that people like Huckabee, but they may not turn out in the numbers because you've got to have machinery to turn them out.

Now, let me speculate though that Romney could still come out, let's speculate a couple of points ahead of Huckabee, but expectations might be higher for Romney than there are Huckabee and Huckabee could go into New Hampshire more of a winner from the public's frame of mind than maybe even Romney coming out first.

MS. MITCHELL: Now, Romney is clearly concerned about the surge from Huckabee. Let's take a look at a new ad; he's the first to go negative with an ad directly comparing his record with his claims of what the Huckabee record is.

POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT: (From videotape.) I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message.

Two former governors, two good family men, both pro-life, both support a constitutional amendment protecting traditional marriage. The difference? Mitt Romney stood up and vetoed in-state tuition for illegal aliens, opposed drivers' licenses for illegals. Mike Huckabee supported in-state tuition benefits for illegal immigrants. Huckabee even supported taxpayer-funded scholarships for illegal aliens.

On immigration, the choice matters.

MS. MITCHELL: Senator, does that work with Iowa voters or could there be some backlash? And could Rudy Giuliani be the, sort of, beneficiary of this Romney ad buy?

SEN. GRASSLEY: Yeah. Well, I didn't say this, but I expect Giuliani to make a strong showing at the tail end and maybe have a respectable third. In the case of negative advertising like this, I don't think it does as much good for a caucus system as it does for primary and general election. That's my judgment of the impact that it's going to make.

MS. MITCHELL: Now, I know this is not your side of the aisle, but let's talk about the Democrats for a second. What is your prediction as to who is going to win? Right now, we're seeing this enormous push for Barack Obama and, of course, the Oprah effect.

Does that really work in Iowa?

SEN. GRASSLEY: Yeah. Well, you've got to know how the Democratic caucus system works; it's different than the Republican caucus system and the Republicans -- we use a straw vote, secret ballot. In the case of the Democrats, anybody that doesn't get 15 percent, they have to drop out and either drop out completely or go for a candidate that's got more than 15 percent.

So I expect there's a lot of Biden and Dodd people, for example, Kucinich, et cetera, that will not get 15 percent and I think those people are more inclined to go for Edwards than to go for Clinton.

So I base it on the proposition that Obama will be number one, Edwards will be number two and Clinton will be number three, but it's going to be relatively close among all those three.

MS. MITCHELL: This sounds a little bit sneaky, but at some point if the Clinton people see that Obama is going to win and win with enough head of steam to really blow into New Hampshire and perhaps really overcome her lead or what was a lead, at least, until recently in New Hampshire, could the Clinton people quietly tell their supporters to go for Edwards to try to push him up and block Obama from a big victory in Iowa?

SEN. GRASSLEY: That would kind of be a Waterloo for Clinton people, I think, because it would show that you're throwing in the sponge, and I don't think anybody that's in a position of national leadership as Senator Clinton is with about 45 percent of the vote nationally would dare do that in Iowa. As significant as Iowa is, it would just be worse than doing it in some other state and would be an awful, crazy thing for the Clinton campaign to do.

MS. MITCHELL: And do you think that Huckabee can go into New Hampshire and win in a state like that? Would you be comfortable with Mike Huckabee as your party's nominee?

SEN. GRASSLEY: I would be comfortable with him. Yes. And one of the reasons I haven't endorsed is there's three of our candidates that I would be very comfortable with because I'm a little more practical this election than I have been in the past and that is --

MS. MITCHELL: Which three, senator?

SEN. GRASSLEY: What?

MS. MITCHELL: Which three of the candidates did you say?

SEN. GRASSLEY: I'm not going to name them because that's just like endorsing three and I'm not that silly, but anyway, I'm happy with them because I want to beat Senator Clinton.

Now, in regard to what Huckabee can do, I would be satisfied with him, but I think the weakness of the Huckabee campaign nationwide is that he doesn't have $35 million in the bank like a lot of these other candidates might have that's going to get you through the television campaigns that you have during, you know, the 20 states between January the 3rd and February the 5th.

MS. MITCHELL: Okay. Thank you very much. A real voice from Iowa; one of the best experts we know on Iowa politics, Senator Chuck Grassley. Thanks for joining us.

SEN. GRASSLEY: Thank you.

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